Pocket Watch - Aston Villa

How Premier League clubs are spending their money in the transfer window, and how they should be spending it.

This is a series where I go through every team in the league and basically, well, pocket watch. I’ll look at how everyone’s been spending their money so far in the summer window, how I think they should be spending their money, and how they’ve been raising their money through sales. I’ll discuss what holes still need to be filled, suggest a few players they could sign to fill those holes, and I’ll also go through the tactical makeups. There’s been some pretty strong windows so far.

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Next in the series is Aston Villa.

Incomings:

Diego Carlos - £28m

Phillipe Coutinho - £18m

Robin Olsen - £3m

Boubacar Kamara - free

Ludwig Augustinsson - loan

Outgoings:

Matt Targett - £16m

Trezeguet - £4m

Net Spend: -£29m

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Remaining needs:

Physical centre forward

Right-sided central midfielder

Possible starting quality centre back

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First observation:

Kamara could be a transformative signing for Villa, and he alone makes their window a success regardless of other incomings. They needed a 6 and they went and got arguably a top 3 young talent in Europe in his position on a free. As for tactical makeup, I’m expecting Gerrard to stick with the 4312 he introduced last season. He flickered between a 4312 and a 4321 at times, but the 4312 seemed to be the most effective. With the 4321, Villa averaged 0.56 points per game. With the 4312, Villa averaged 1.22 points per game. In the absence of a lone 6, Coutinho was often forced to drop deep to help with the build up. But I think Kamara’s addition will help simplify Phil’s role a bit, allowing him the freedom to operate as more of a third attacker. They still have the option of Leon Bailey, who will be handy in games where Gerrard opts for a little more width in a 433 setup. Coutinho inside forward on the left, Bailey inside on the right. Bailey had a torrid time with injuries, but I do really like him as a player. Hopefully he can kick on next season and stay fit. So let’s say a starting 11 of:

Martinez

Cash

Konsa

Carlos

Digne

Kamara

New interior 8

Ramsay

Coutinho

Watkins

New physical 9

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I don’t particularly like the Carlos deal. £30m for a rash 30 year old centre back isn’t a particularly good use of funds. But he is still an upgrade on Mings, and he does have a bit of Europa League experience, which is obviously what Villa are building towards. He’s also, to his credit, a really good ball playing defender. So I can see sense in it, even if he wouldn’t have been my choice.

As for needs, there aren’t really any huge needs in the starting 11 now which haven’t already been addressed. I would like to see them go for a physical 9, especially if they’re to continue with that 4312 they introduced last season. The 9 I want to recommend is Tammy Abraham. He’s the 9 they should’ve probably signed instead of Ings last summer. But I imagine he’s one of Roma’s untouchables now. Chelsea have a £67m buy back clause which only activates next summer, so you’d assume Roma would only entertain an offer in excess of £80m this summer. I know Villa’s owners are ambitious, but I’m not sure they’re that ambitious yet without European football.

The smartest stopgap before a long-term option like Tammy became available would be Porto’s Iranian centre forward Mehdi Taremi. He’s turning 30 in a few days, but he might be one of the most underrated 9’s in Europe. Last season was only actually his third season in a European league. He scored 27 and assisted 16 times in all competitions as Porto reclaimed the title (20 goals and 12 assists in the league). The season before it with Porto, he scored 16 and assisted 11 times in the league (23 and 14 in all comps). The season before that for Rio Ave (his first ever season in a European top 6 league), he scored 18, assisted twice (21 and 2 in all comps). He has been terrifyingly productive for a player with no previous European experience. He’s also racked up 7 goals and assists in European competitions for Porto in the past two seasons. Standing at 6’2, he has an unbelievable physical profile. He’s forceful on the ball, good in the air, and deceptively quick for his size. He links up well and can conduct an attack. He’s a good goalscorer, but he doesn’t shy away from creating for his teammates either. No player in the Primeira Liga created more big chances than Taremi’s 18 for Porto last season. Overall he made 50 chances for his teammates. He can be quite a tricky player in the box as well, winning 5 penalties last season (again, more than any other player in the league). He’s a bit of a shithouse, which is actually what I think Gerrard wants in his 9’s. He wants a bit of nastiness. He had it in Morelos at Rangers. Players who will do absolutely anything to give their team an advantage. As long as that chaos can be reigned in and controlled, it can be utilised to drive the team forwards and win games. I think both Watkins and Ings would benefit with that kind of profile to play off. They’re two forwards who have always found more joy as more of a second striker. A front two of Watkins and Taremi, with Ings and Archer as the backups, would be a really healthy situation for Villa to be in. Taremi is reportedly available for around £16m. He wouldn’t be a huge risk at that price point, and I do think he’d suit the league like a glove.

Taremi’s age shouldn’t be a concern either. I think the signings of Coutinho, Carlos, Digne and Ings all confirm that Villa are building a project with the perfect blend of experience and youth. They have such a talented young group of players, and they’re also blessed with one of the most exciting academies in Europe who are on the rise. They need experienced heads to help nurture and mentor that talent. I also feel like Villa’s goal in the short term is to build a team capable of getting them into the Europa League. So targeting good-level older profiles who are less likely to be poached by clubs competing on a bigger stage might be the best way to go. The longer-term signings can come later when Villa themselves are competing on the big stage — although Kamara absolutely does represent a long-term signing. I suppose it’s about finding the right balance.

I wouldn’t have said there was a huge need for another centre back. I rate Ezri Konsa and I do think he’s one of the most talented English centre backs. I know he wasn’t particularly good last season but even the best of defenders would struggle alongside Mings. But I suppose it would depend on how Gerrard views Chambers. Does he see him as a Konsa backup or does he see him as a backup to Cash? If it’s the latter, then a centre back does make sense. And they were quite reliable linked to Joe Gomez for months before he signed his extension at Liverpool. So with that profile in mind, let’s say they’re looking for someone who matches the following criteria: right sided, right footed, good recovery pace, capable ball carrier, good defensive reading. There aren’t many at Joe’s level obviously, but a more realistic alternative could be Wolfsburg’s Maxence Lacroix. At 22, he has tons of room for growth. Really impressive physical profile. Stands at 6’3 but he’s a quick, intelligent centre back. His stocks have fallen after a less impressive second season for Wolfsburg, and he’s now reportedly on the market at around the £17m-25m mark. So he wouldn’t be a huge risk. His reading is super impressive, ranking in the 99th percentile in Europe for interceptions. Really capable ball carrier too. Again, ranking in the 99th percentile in Europe for successful dribbles completed amongst defenders. He isn’t the best ball playing defender, but he wouldn’t necessarily even need to be if he’s paired with Carlos; a very good ball player. I think it’d be a balanced pairing. He might not be an immediate starter, but he’ll push Konsa for a place and maybe Konsa responds positively to that quality of competition. A long-term pairing of Konsa and Lacroix could potentially be frightening.

As for right sided midfielder. They’ve been getting linked quite heavily with Otavio recently, another Porto player. And I can understand why. He’d be a perfect fit as a half winger in that diamond midfield system. Kamara at the base, Otavio as the creative outlet on the right, Ramsay as the box to box on the left, and Coutinho as the 10. Actually think Otavio as a creative outlet would again, like Kamara, simplify Phil’s game a bit. Would give Phil the freedom to operate more as a late runner into the box and provide a consistent goal threat rather than constantly play with his back to goal and look to link play. But I’ve already recommended one Porto player so I’m going to scratch that one off, and Villa already have Buendia who could easily do the same job.

Gallagher seems like the obvious shout if they want that industrious, high pressing box to box 8 to play on the right side. Villa supporters seem to want a bit more height in the midfield as well. My main concern is they already sort of have that role on the left with Jacob Ramsay. You could play both, but I’d worry about the balance.

I think the perfect blend of Otavio and someone with a bit of grit would be Lovro Majer at Rennes. Smart, wildly creative, and an occasional goal threat. Really high technical level. Last season, Majer managed 0.39 assists per 90 for Rennes in the league, which was only bettered by Lionel Messi (not a bad player to be bettered by in all honesty). He ranked 5th in the league for progressive carries per 90 amongst midfielders, whilst averaging 2.06 key passes per 90, which puts him in the 97th percentile in Europe for key passes by midfielders. He presses high, averaging 7.76 pressures in the attacking third per 90 (98th percentile), but he also knows how to play out from a press, ranking in the 95th percentile for passes under pressure. For Rennes, Majer has occupied the right of a midfield three. He likes to drift wider into the right half-space, similar to that of a mezzala. If Villa were to continue with the 4312, Majer would be ideal in that he’d still be able to provide width for Villa in transition (assume that’s why they were looking at Otavio in the first place). He’s a really intelligent player with a top technical ceiling. He’d be the more ambitious signing too — although having recently been linked to the likes of Madrid and Inter Milan, he might be quite difficult to pull off. If they can’t pull Majer off, then I would look to Carlos Soler at Valencia. Coming into the final year of his contract so you’d assume he’s available on the cheap. Decent height, superb on the ball. Operates in that same right half space that Otavio and Majer both like to dominate.

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Final recommendations:

Lacroix

Majer

Taremi

And a squad list looking like:

Martinez/Olsen

Cash/Chambers

Konsa/Lacroix

Carlos/Mings

Digne/Augustinsson/Young

Kamara/Nakamba

Majer/McGinn

Ramsay/Luiz

Coutinho/Buendia

Watkins/Ings/Bailey

Taremi/Archer

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Final analysis:

Solid window so far. They’ve already sorted the majority of their needs. They did really well getting £16m for Targett. I suppose their other business would depend on outgoings. I imagine Carney Chukwuemeka gets sold, which is a shame because he’s a special talent. Interested to see how much tactical input Neil Critchley has as Gerrard’s assistant since his arrival from Blackpool over the summer. His favoured formation at Blackpool seemed to be a 442. Maybe something similar is in the works for Villa.